The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is +/- 3% for the national exit poll and +/- 4% for the 50 state exit polls (1). On November 2, 2004, the exit polls showed John Kerry with a lead over George W. Bush of 3 percentage points in Florida and 4 percentage points in Ohio (2)(3). As it stands today, November 5, 2004, John Kerry has ended up losing Florida to George W. Bush by 5.2 percentage points (4) and in Ohio he has ended up losing by 2.5 percentage points (5).
The difference between the Florida exit poll and the final results are 8.2 percentage points. This is more than double the +/- 4% error rate for this exit poll. This 105% increase in the error rate is statistically next to impossible to happen. For the 67 county-by-county breakdowns on this take a look at "Surprising Pattern of Florida's Election Results" (6).
The difference between the Ohio exit poll and the final results are 6.5 percentage points. This is a 62.5% increase in the +/- 4% error rate for this exit poll. A 62.5% increase in the error rate is statistically very unlikely to occur.
Together, the likelihood of Florida and Ohio both seeing such differences from their exit polls to the final results are statistically impossible. Therefore the only conclusion one could possibly derive from this statistic impossibility is that this was a stolen election. The new electronic voting machines with no paper receipts are suspect (7).
Edison Media Research (8) and Mitofsky International (9) conducted exit polls in each state and nationally for the National Election Pool, a cooperative agreement among the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC news (10). There are 31 current subscribers to their service (11).
The Election Day survey was based on 11,027 interviews with voters who cast their votes at 1,480 precincts selected to be a representative sample of states and the nation as a whole. Telephone interviews were used to supplement results in states that allow early voting through absentee ballots or other options. The exit polls surveyed 2,846 voters in Florida and 1,963 in Ohio (12).
places were selected as a stratified probability sample of each state.
The purpose of stratification is to group together precincts with
similar vote characteristics. A recent past election was used to identify
all the precincts, as they existed for that election. The total vote
in each precinct and the partisan division of the vote from this past
race are used for the stratification. In addition, counties are used
for stratifying the precincts. The total vote also is used to determine
the probability of selection. Each voter in a state has approximately
the same chance of being selected in the sample (1).
CNN.com change their Ohio exit poll numbers after 1:05am? The first
graphic was taken from CNN.com at 1:05am on November 3, 2004. The
exit poll chart shows John Kerry leading George W. Bush by 4 percentage
points. The second graphic was taken from CNN.com at 6:41am on November
3, 2004. This
new exit poll chart shows George W. Bush leading John Kerry by 2.5
very much enjoyed Senator John McCain (the Bush administration's supposed
non-partisan heaviest hitter) going on the Tonight Show on Thursday,
November 4, 2004 (the perfect day), to try to quell any talk of mischief
in the Florida and Ohio exit polls vs. the final results. Bringing
out McCain coupled with the perfect timing to try to cover up this
stolen election is a dead give away of what truly happened.